How to Avoid Big Numbers in Golf and Save Your Round
Double bogeys decide most amateur scores. Member scorecards show where blow up holes happen, plus the tee, recovery, and short game rules that stop them.
By Flighting Editorial Team
Key Takeaways
- In Flighting member rounds of 90 to 94, double bogeys or worse account for 61.2% of all strokes over par (636 rounds).
- Par 4s are where the damage piles up: members shooting 95 to 99 make double or worse on 46.4% of par 4s.
- Blow up holes usually grow from a second mistake after the first miss, so the fix is a bogey plan off the tee and a sideways exit from trouble.
- A double does not doom the next hole. Members were barely more likely to follow a double with another one.
To avoid big numbers in golf, stop trying to save par once a hole goes wrong. Pick a tee club that keeps the ball in play, take the widest escape from trouble even if it goes sideways, aim approach shots at the middle of the green, and treat bogey as a good score on any hole you have already messed up.
Why do I have blow up holes in golf?
A blow up hole is rarely one bad swing. It is one bad swing followed by a decision that tries to erase it. The drive goes into the trees, and instead of pitching out you try the 3-foot gap. The ball hits a branch, drops, and now you are hitting three from the same spot. That hole was a bogey after the first miss. It became a triple on the second decision.
A few patterns show up again and again:
- The hero recovery. Trying a low-percentage shot to get back to par after a miss.
- The short-sided approach. Firing at a flag tucked behind a bunker from 160 yards, missing on the short side, and then chunking or blading a chip that has no green to work with.
- The fairway bunker gamble. Pulling a fairway wood from a bunker with a lip in front, catching the lip, and hitting the next shot from the same sand.
- The penalty plus. A ball in the water or out of bounds is one stroke. The damage comes from rushing the next shot, or re-teeing and making the same swing.
Every one of these is a choice made before the swing. That is good news, because choices are easier to fix than a swing.
How many double bogeys does the average golfer make?
We looked at 5,579 hole-by-hole scorecards from 512 Flighting members, grouped by final score. Hole scores are USGA adjusted scores, which cap each hole at net double bogey for handicap purposes, so the worst holes are, if anything, understated here. Flighting members are stronger than the average golfer, so read this by score level rather than as a picture of all golfers. The full methodology is on our golf by the numbers page.
| Final score | Rounds (members) | Double or worse per round | Share of strokes over par from doubles or worse | Par 4s scored double or worse |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 80 | 2,115 (319) | 0.75 | 24.4% | 4.5% |
| 80 to 84 | 1,289 (318) | 2.07 | 37.7% | 12.4% |
| 85 to 89 | 947 (262) | 3.75 | 50.5% | 22.6% |
| 90 to 94 | 636 (195) | 5.73 | 61.2% | 34.7% |
| 95 to 99 | 313 (110) | 7.95 | 72.4% | 46.4% |
| 100 to 104 | 151 (69) | 10.07 | 80.3% | 58.3% |
| 105 and over | 128 (36) | 13.02 | 89.8% | 77.2% |
Look at the middle of the table. A round of 85 to 89 carries 3.75 doubles or worse. A round of 90 to 94 carries 5.73. The gap between those two scores is mostly two big numbers. At 95 to 99, almost three quarters of the strokes over par come on holes scored double or worse.
At the other end, 47.7% of member rounds under 80 had no double at all. Among rounds of 85 to 89, only 0.5% did. Nobody in the 90s went a full round without one. You will make doubles. The goal is to make fewer of them and to stop doubles from turning into triples.
How to avoid double bogeys off the tee
Start with the tee shot, because that is where most big numbers begin. On every par 4 and par 5, ask one question before you pull a club: where is the miss that costs a stroke? Out of bounds, water, and thick trees cost a stroke or more. Rough and fairway bunkers usually do not.
If the trouble sits inside your driver dispersion, hit the club that keeps the ball short of it or leaves you on the wide side. Take a 400-yard par 4 with water down the left starting at 230 yards. A 3-wood or hybrid that finishes at 210 leaves you 190 in. That is a long approach, but it is a bogey at worst. The driver that hooks into the hazard brings double into play before you have hit your second shot.
Two rules that work for most mid-handicappers:
- Aim away from the penalty side. Pick a target on the safe edge of the fairway and commit to it. If you miss your target by 20 yards, you want that miss to land in the rough, not the lake.
- Know your one-stroke holes. Before the round, circle the three or four holes where you usually lose a ball. Decide your tee club for those holes in the parking lot, not on the tee.
If you want a full plan for choosing clubs and targets, our course management guide walks through it hole by hole.
How to stop blow up holes on par 4s
Par 4s make up about 10 holes on a typical card, and they are the holes where members bleed the most. In our data, members shooting 95 to 99 make double or worse on 46.4% of par 4s, compared with 37.1% of par 3s. Every par 4 has two full shots before the green, so there are two chances for a miss to stack up.
The fix is a bogey plan for any par 4 you cannot reach in two comfortable swings. Walk it backward from the green:
- Pick your favorite wedge distance, say 60 or 80 yards.
- Choose a second shot that leaves that distance and stays away from the bunkers guarding the front of the green.
- Choose a tee club that leaves the second shot on grass you can hit from.
On a 420-yard par 4 for a golfer who drives it 220, that might be driver, 7-iron to 90 yards, wedge to the middle of the green, and two putts. The worst case is bogey. The best case is a one-putt par. Compare that with driver, 3-wood from 200 over a bunker, and a short-sided chip. That second plan has more birdie chances and far more doubles.
On approach shots, aim at the middle of the green unless the flag is in the middle already. A shot that lands 30 feet away on the green is a two-putt bogey at worst. The same miss toward a tucked flag leaves you in a bunker with no green to land on.
How to avoid triple bogeys after a bad shot
The single most useful rule for avoiding triples is this: after a miss, your next shot has one job, and that job is getting back into play. Not getting close. Getting out.
In the trees, choose the widest gap, even if it means pitching sideways or backward to the fairway. Wide means the size of a garage door, not a window. If your best route forward needs a hook around a tree under a branch, you are betting a triple against a par. You will lose that bet far more often than you win it.
After a penalty, slow down. Take your drop, then take a practice swing and pick a target before you hit. Most golfers rush this shot because they are annoyed. A bad swing here is how a double becomes a quadruple.
Build the recovery shot in practice so it is not a guess on the course. A good range drill: set two alignment sticks 20 yards apart about 60 yards away. Take a 7-iron, grip down an inch, put the ball back in your stance, and hit 10 punch shots that stay low and finish between the sticks. Do it until 8 of 10 finish inside. That is the shot you need when you are under branches, and it is worth more than another bucket of drivers.
How to stop getting double bogeys around the green
Plenty of doubles start near the green. A chip that stays in the rough, a bunker shot that goes over, and then three putts. The fix is picking the shot with the biggest margin for error, not the prettiest one.
- Putt when you can. From the fringe or a tight lie with no obstacle, a putter is the lowest-risk option for most amateurs.
- Chip with less loft. An 8-iron or 9-iron bump and run has less that can go wrong than a lob wedge. Land it on the green and let it roll.
- From a bunker, just get it on the green. Aim for the fat middle, not the flag. Anywhere on the putting surface is a win when the alternative is still being in the sand.
Practice the two shots that save the most doubles. First, 10 chips from light rough to the middle of a practice green, with a goal of 10 out of 10 finishing on the putting surface. Second, 10 lag putts from 30 to 40 feet, with a goal of every ball finishing inside a 3-foot circle. Three-putts turn bogeys into doubles quietly, and a lag putt that ends inside 3 feet removes most of them. Our guide to the short game shots worth practicing has more drills for this.
Does one bad hole ruin your round?
Many golfers believe one double leads straight to another. We checked this in member scorecards by comparing the hole right after a double with the hole after any other score.
| Final score | Rounds (members) | Double or worse on the next hole after a double | Double or worse on the next hole after any other score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 85 | 3,404 (397) | 8.3% | 6.8% |
| 85 to 94 | 1,583 (303) | 25.4% | 25.1% |
| 95 and over | 592 (132) | 54.6% | 51.3% |
The difference is small in every group. For members shooting 85 to 94, a double on the last hole barely changed the odds on the next one. The real spiral happens inside a single hole, one decision after another, not across holes.
That should change how you handle a bad hole. Write down the number, walk to the next tee, and run the same routine you would after a par. If you need a reset, use something short and repeatable, like the one in our guide to a pre-shot routine that works under pressure. Do not try to win the strokes back on the next hole with an aggressive tee shot. That is the hero shot again, just one hole later.
To find your own pattern, mark every double on your card for a month of rounds and note what started it: tee shot, recovery, or short game. Flighting tracks your posted rounds from your verified USGA Handicap ID, so the scoring side of that record builds itself. You can join Flighting and start with your next round.
Frequently Asked Questions
How do I stop making double bogeys?
Play a bogey plan on hard holes, keep your tee ball away from penalty areas, and take the widest escape after a miss. A double usually grows from the shot after the miss, not the miss itself.
How many double bogeys does a 90 golfer make?
In Flighting member scorecards, rounds of 90 to 94 averaged 5.73 holes of double bogey or worse (636 rounds, 195 members). Rounds of 85 to 89 averaged 3.75.
What is a blow up hole in golf?
A blow up hole is a hole where the score runs well past bogey, usually double bogey or worse. It typically starts with one miss and grows when the next shot tries too much.
Should I lay up to avoid big numbers?
Lay up when the shot you want carries trouble that sits inside your normal miss. If laying up leaves a comfortable wedge and takes a penalty area out of play, it is almost always the better choice for a mid-handicapper.
Does a double bogey make the next hole worse?
Not by much in our data. Members shooting 85 to 94 made double or worse on 25.4% of holes after a double and 25.1% after any other score.
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