2026 Memorial Tournament Longshot Picks and Big Payout Parlays

Detailed analysis of 2026 Memorial Tournament longshot picks and PGA props. Learn how this golf parlay could return over $80,000.

By Marcus Bell, PGA Teaching Professional 2026-06-03

The 2026 Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village presents unique betting opportunities for golf fans. According to CBS Sports, a carefully selected parlay involving longshot picks could yield a staggering return of over $80,000 on a $10 bet. By focusing on under-the-radar players with strong course history and favorable odds, you can maximize your chances of hitting a big payout.

What Are the Odds for the 2026 Memorial Tournament?

As of this week, top players like Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy are favored with odds around +700 and +900, respectively. However, the real value lies in longshots like Sahith Theegala (+8000) and Adam Svensson (+10000), both of whom have shown flashes of brilliance at similar courses. CBS Sports highlights Theegala as a player whose creativity and short-game skills are well-suited for Muirfield’s demanding layout.

For example, Theegala ranks in the top 15 on the PGA Tour in strokes gained around the green, a metric that is critical at Muirfield Village. Svensson, meanwhile, has gained over 0.7 strokes per round on approach shots this season, which could give him an edge on the course’s tight fairways and small greens. Players with these skills have historically outperformed expectations at Muirfield.

Another intriguing longshot is Davis Riley (+6000), who has demonstrated strong ball-striking and scrambling ability. Riley’s 64.8% scrambling percentage ranks him inside the top 30 on the PGA Tour this season, making him a viable candidate for bettors looking for value beyond the favorites.

Why Focus on Longshot Picks?

Longshot picks offer a high-risk, high-reward opportunity in an event like the Memorial. The course's challenging greens and penal rough often level the playing field, giving lesser-known players a chance to compete. For example, Billy Horschel entered the 2022 Memorial with odds of +6600 and walked away with the trophy. A similar outcome in 2026 could turn a modest bet into a life-changing payout.

To identify potential longshots, analyze key stats like strokes gained around the green and scrambling percentage. Players who excel in these areas often outperform their odds at Muirfield Village. For instance:

• Sahith Theegala: Ranked 15th in strokes gained around the green, making him a strong contender for navigating Muirfield’s undulating greens.
• Davis Riley: A scrambling percentage of 64.8% helps him recover from Muirfield’s thick rough and demanding approach shots.
• Adam Svensson: Gaining over 0.7 strokes per round on approach shots, Svensson’s iron play could separate him from the pack.

These examples show that longshots with specific strengths can offer value even in a traditionally tough tournament like the Memorial.

How to Build a High-Return Parlay

A parlay combines multiple bets into one, significantly increasing the potential payout. CBS Sports suggests including at least three longshot picks with odds of +5000 or higher. For example, pairing Sahith Theegala (+8000), Davis Riley (+6000), and Adam Svensson (+10000) in a $10 parlay could return over $80,000 if all three win.

Step-by-Step Parlay Strategy

1. Research Player Form: Focus on recent finishes and performance on similar courses. For instance, Theegala’s T6 finish at the 2025 Genesis Invitational, a course with comparable green complexes, makes him a strong candidate.
2. Select Complementary Picks: Mix players who excel in different key stats. Pair a strong approach player like Svensson with a short-game wizard like Theegala to cover all aspects of Muirfield Village.
3. Place Modest Bets: Use smaller stakes for your parlay to limit risk. A $10 parlay can still yield massive returns, as demonstrated by CBS Sports’ calculations.
4. Track Odds Movement: Monitor any changes in odds leading up to the tournament. Players with improving form may see their odds tighten, so lock in bets early.

While the odds of hitting a parlay are slim, the potential rewards make it an enticing option for recreational bettors.

Other Betting Options for Risk-Averse Fans

If a high-risk parlay isn’t your style, consider betting on top 10 or top 20 finishes. For example, Sahith Theegala is listed at +800 for a top 10 finish, offering a safer but still profitable return. Similarly, head-to-head matchups allow you to focus on individual players rather than the entire field.

One strategy is to bet on players with consistent top-20 finishes in recent events. For example, Adam Svensson has achieved four top-20 finishes in his last eight starts, making him a reliable option for this type of wager. Betting $50 on him to finish in the top 20 at +400 odds would return $200 if successful.

Specific Examples of Safer Bets

• Top 10 Finish: Sahith Theegala at +800. A $25 bet would return $200 if he finishes in the top 10.
• Top 20 Finish: Adam Svensson at +400. A $50 bet would return $200.
• Head-to-Head Matchup: Bet on Davis Riley to outperform a similarly ranked player with odds at -110. A $55 bet would return $50.

What Makes Muirfield Village Unique?

Muirfield Village, designed by Jack Nicklaus, is a par-72 course measuring 7,533 yards. Its undulating greens, deep bunkers, and thick rough demand precision and creativity. Past champions often excel in strokes gained approach and putting, two metrics worth prioritizing this week.

In 2025, Viktor Hovland won with a total score of 268 (-20), showcasing the importance of consistent ball-striking and clutch putting. Players who ranked in the top 10 of strokes gained approach during the 2025 event gained an average of 1.5 strokes per round in that category. Longshots who can replicate this formula may surprise the field.

Key Metrics to Watch This Week

To refine your betting strategy, focus on the following metrics:

• Strokes Gained Approach: Players like Adam Svensson (+10000) excel in this category, gaining over 0.7 strokes per round in 2026.
• Scrambling Percentage: Critical for navigating Muirfield’s tough greenside conditions. Davis Riley ranks in the top 30 on Tour with a 64.8% scrambling percentage this season.
• Par-5 Scoring: Taking advantage of Muirfield’s scorable par-5s is crucial for longshots. Sahith Theegala ranks 12th on Tour in par-5 scoring average at 4.45 strokes per hole.

Tracking these stats can help you identify value bets and avoid overpaying for favorites.

Is This the Year for a Breakthrough Winner?

With a history of longshot winners like Billy Horschel and William McGirt, the Memorial is known for delivering surprises. In 2026, players like Sahith Theegala and Davis Riley fit the mold of potential breakthrough winners. Both have the skill set to tackle Muirfield’s challenges, making them intriguing options for bettors looking to cash in on a Cinderella story.

For instance, Theegala’s creativity around the greens and Riley’s consistent ball-striking align well with the course’s demands. Combining their strengths into a betting strategy could yield significant returns, especially if you include them in a parlay or bet on their top 10 finishes.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the odds for Sahith Theegala at the 2026 Memorial?

Sahith Theegala is listed at +8000 to win the 2026 Memorial Tournament.

How much could a $10 parlay return?

A $10 parlay on three longshots with odds of +8000, +6000, and +10000 could return over $80,000.

What makes Muirfield Village a challenging course?

Muirfield Village features undulating greens, deep bunkers, and thick rough, demanding precision and creativity from players.

What are safer betting options for the Memorial?

Safer options include betting on top 10 or top 20 finishes and head-to-head matchups.

What stats are most important for success at Muirfield Village?

Key stats include strokes gained approach, scrambling percentage, and par-5 scoring.

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